For the first six months of 2012, intermodal rail tonnage continued to
increase as ATA’s trucking index contracts in April and May.
Good news for freight transportation providers – according
to the American Trucking Association’s (ATA) latest forecast, overall freight
tonnage is expected to grow 21% by 2023. Not surprising, the trucking segment
is expected to lead this growth with its share extending to almost 70% of total
freight movements.
On the other hand, rail’s share of total freight movement is
expected to decline from 15.7% in 2011 to 15% by 2023, while intermodal is
expected to increase 6.2% annually between 2012 and 2017; and then at a 5.4%
annual increase through 2023.
This forecasted increase in intermodal is quite possible. For
the first half of 2012, intermodal traffic was up 3.3% compared to same period
in 2011. Since the recovery began in 2009, the growth has been quite
impressive. In the first six months of 2009, the average weekly intermodal
loadings were 185,075 containers and trailers. In the first six months of 2012,
the average was up to 232,682 containers and trailers, a 25.7% increase.
However, the trucking segment appears not to have had such a
strong first half of 2012, which therefore does not support the forecast for growth in the sector. ATA data is currently
available only through May but for April and May, the index declined indicating
tonnage declined. The association’s economist noted the declines were
attributed to the sluggish economy. Still, the association expects an annual 3% to 3.5% growth for the year.
Oddly enough, the sluggish economy does not appear to have
had as much of a negative effect on intermodal as it has on trucking. Perhaps
this is because the majority of US rail intermodal traffic is international and
only 45% is domestic. Another possibility is that intermodal rail is gaining
significant market share from the trucking industry within domestic movements.
The rise in intermodal has indeed been impressive. Among the
reasons for this rise are the fact that railroads have spent billions of
dollars on infrastructure and equipment related to intermodal services; High
congestion and truck driver shortages; and conversion of boxcar traffic.
Intermodal’s continued increases in tonnage seems to defy a
slowing economy and although intermodal tonnage is lower than that of trucking
tonnage in general, it does cause one to question the ambitious market share
forecast for trucking by 2023.
