Logistics
Confidence Index declines for third consecutive month
by Lucy Palmer
The Stifel Nicolaus Logistics Confidence
Index declined for the third consecutive month according to the latest industry
study by Transport Intelligence. The Index is generated from an extensive
survey of global logistics professionals asking their views on current levels
of volumes in the industry and their expectations for six months’ time. An
index value of 50 indicates no change in the volumes currently being
experienced for the time of year; above 50 indicates higher volumes, while
below 50 indicates lower volumes.
In July, the index for the current logistics
situation – air and sea freight combined – fell to 43.3 from 44.6 in the
previous month. This signifies that volumes are well below what forwarders
would have expected. Air freight forwarders continued to express less confidence
compared with sea freight forwarders, possibly as a result of a shift from air
to sea freight as shippers seek to lower transport costs. At 41.1 the index for
air freight fell to its lowest level so far, while the index for sea freight
remained almost flat at 45.4 (45.7 in June). The index for logistics expectations for six
months’ time also fell further in July. The total index for both air and sea
expectations now stands at 56.4.
Air
Freight at lowest level since index began
Sentiment among air forwarders was particularly
low in July, with lower confidence expressed in every trade lane. There was
very little variation among individual trade lanes. Air forwarders on the Asia
to Europe route continued to indicate the weakest sentiment with regards to
current volumes, while the US to Europe route registered the highest index
value, albeit at just 42.1.
The index for air freight volume expectations
fell to 56.0 from 57.8 in June, indicating forwarders were slightly less
optimistic about the outlook for the next six months. The index for the US to
Europe trade lane saw the greatest decline at 54.5 in July compared with 57.3
expressed in June.
Sea
Freight index remains almost unchanged
The index for sea freight has remained
virtually unchanged since April. There were only minor changes among the
individual trade lane indices. Forwarders on the Europe to Asia and Europe to
US routes expressed slightly more optimism compared with June; while forwarders
on the European bound trade lanes saw the indices register minor declines.
In terms of the outlook for the next six
months, the total index fell to 56.8 from 58.2 in the previous month.
Forwarders across all trade lanes expected a decline in prospects compared with
June.
The report can be downloaded from free at: http://www.transportintelligence.com/articles_papers/
To take part of the survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/Default.aspx
